Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for euro area growth. Our forecasts are built from univariate autoregressive and single equation models. Euro area aggregate forecasts are constructed both by employing aggregate variables and by aggregating country-specific forecasts. The forecast evaluation is based on a recently developed test for equal predictive ability between nested models. Employing a monthly dataset from the period between January 1988 and May 2005 and setting the out-of-sample period to be from 2001 onwards, we find that the single most powerful predictor on a country basis is the stock market returns, followed by money supply growth. However, for the euro area aggregate, the set of most powerful predictors includes interest rate variables as well. The forecasts from pooling individual country models outperform those from the aggregate itself for short run forecasts, while for longer horizons this pattern is reversed. Additional benefits are obtained when combining information from a range of variables or combining model forecasts.     

我国中小企业与民营经济融资渠道初探

发展中小企业对缓解我国日益突出的就业压力具有特殊意义。中小企业发展的最大障碍就是融资困难,其存活率、信用度和三角债使得债权融资难度极大,而成功企业的高回报又使得股权融资有一定的基础。文章认为,疏通融资渠道是促进中小企业存活与发展的关键,中央和地方政府应该是中小企业融资渠道的主要疏通者;要在注重债权融资的同时,加大对创业投资的政策引导和资金支持,这是加快经济发展,缓解就业压力,全面推进小康社会建设的重要途径。     

Financial Supervision: Integrated or Specialized?The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper discusses the relative merits of the two approaches of financial regulation and supervision for the case of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In doing so, it reviews the main arguments advanced in the specialized literature in pro and against of each approach. All the theoretical arguments are contrasted with available country experiences from around the world and discussed with a focus on the Latin American and Caribbean countries. A methodology to analyze the efficacy and the efficiency of each approach in meeting the main objectives of financial regulation is also provided. The paper concludes that in the present circumstances, the net benefits of adopting an integrated approach probably exceed the net benefits stemming from the adoption of a specialized approach for most of the countries in the region.     

债权人财务分析体系的构建

不同财务分析主体所处环境、所站立场不同,他们的分析目的、分析焦点也应该不同。目前使用的固定指标体系已不能满足不同主体预测、决策的需要。如何解决这个问题?答案是应从不同主体的分析目标出发,确定其各自的分析体系,只有这样才能提高财务分析的效率、效益。本文将从一个侧面,即债权人的角度,谈谈财务分析体系的构建。     

The effect of legislation on corporate disclosure practices

This article investigates the effect of the Financial Reporting Act of 1993 (FRA) on mandatory disclosure practices of companies listed on the New Zealand Exchange Limited. The FRA gave statutory backing to financial reporting standards in New Zealand and made non-compliance illegal. Using both univariate and multivariate analyses, we examine the association between (a) the levels of compliance with mandatory disclosure by the companies in our sample, and (b) disclosure regulatory regimes that prevailed in New Zealand before and after the implementation of the FRA. We find that mean corporate disclosure compliance levels in the periods after the enactment of the FRA are significantly higher than those in the periods before the enactment of the legislation. After controlling for the effects of other mandatory disclosure-related variables documented in prior studies, we also find that the improvement in corporate disclosure compliance behaviour is the result of the implementation of the FRA. Alternative specifications of the primary regression model indicate that those findings are robust.     

社保基金投资股市对经济增长的影响

本文在一系列假定条件下分析了中央社保基金投资资本市场对经济增长和包括储蓄、收入分配、消费、价格等在内的宏观经济条件的影响.本文认为,总的来说中央社保基金投资包括股市在内的资本市场对经济增长的影响具有很大的不确定性,其影响主要取决于其他诸多相关因素,并在很大程度上取决于心理预期和政策工具的选择.换言之,在其他条件不变的情况下其影响是很有限的,或者说主要呈中性.     

论企业的应收账款管理

流动资金紧缺和周转困难,已成为企业经济效益下降的主要原因之一,甚至是左右企业成败的关键所在。造成这种现状的原因是多方面的。其中,企业对应收账款缺乏有效管理使其数额过高,是主要的原因之一。因此,如何加强应收账款的管理,避免或减少损失的发生,保证企业经营活动的正常进行,提高企业的经济效益,是任何一个企业必须认真思考的问题。     

论网络经济时代企业财务管理模式的创新

面对网络经济的蓬勃发展,有形作业将逐步被无形的数字化作业模式所取代,传统的企业财务管理模式将发生深刻的变化.企业财务管理模式创新的路径是从创建网络型组织结构、重组业务流程到新型财务管理模式的确立.     

财务会计概念框架构建的动力分析

我国外部环境的重大变化要求建立财务会计概念框架,同时通过对框架的动因分析,我们发现财务会计概念框架的稳定性是相对的,同样在框架制定过程中,是随着准则的变迁而逐渐完善的。     

IT环境下财务监控内容的拓展

IT技术发展及其在社会经济活动中的广泛应用,促使财务监控由人工系统向计算机系统转换,财务监控内容也就实现了从是否有用且可能提供到仅仅考虑是否有用的转变,在广度、深度、关联度、动态连续性等方面得到充分拓展。IT环境下的财务监控内容可以从对具体财务活动的真实合法性监控、对财务活动综合作用结果的合理性监控两方面进行描述。而财务监控结果则可按分部、会计期间、差异程度、重要性等方式予以揭示,也可以同时按其几种方式进行多维揭示。从某种意义上说,IT环境下财务监控内容的拓展实际上是一种数据挖掘。